Cincinnati Reds sophomore outfielder Jay Bruce has disappointed his owners with a poor batting average and a failure to deliver the stolen bases that many analysts had alluded to during the preseason hype-orgy that surrounded him. While unsatisfied expectations can account for most of the hair pulling, there are reasons to rejoice when it comes to owning Bruce.
He's provided very good power numbers (18 HR) and a respectable 38 R and 40 RBI. Yes, he's only provided 3 steals... but any steals you get from Bruce should be considered gravy. Yes, he has an abysmal .215 AVG but there are reasons to be optimistic about that number improving significantly over the course of the season.
His BABIP on fly balls is .048, nearly 90 points below the league average of .139. That is bad enough, but he also hits fly balls 46.1% of the time, over 10% higher than the league average. He has been accused of falling in love with the long ball, and the numbers clearly support this. Most often people will describe having a high or low BABIP as a statistic that can be attributed to blind luck, but this is not always the case. It's likely that if you and I know that Bruce likes to swing for the fences, so does opposing pitchers and fielders. After an April in which he batted .258 AVG and .530 SLG, the word was out on the kid and the league adjusted. In May his AVG and SLG dropped 50 points each and his struck out to walk ratio went from 2:1 to 3:1. In June we saw his AVG drop 30 points to a ghastly .187 and SLG drop another 100 points to .385.
These numbers and trends do not seem to have the makings of a comeback story but there is indeed a silver lining. The numbers on the balls Bruce hit during the month of June are not pretty, but the numbers on the balls he wasn't shows promise. After striking out three times for every walk in May he has evened his SO:BB to 15:14 in June and while his AVG and SLG dropped his OBP rose 20 points. It might appear to be a small victory in the face of a total meltdown but I do believe Bruce is going through the necessary growing pains that will make him a much better batter in the not-so-distant future.
In plain english, he's learning plate discipline and that is going to produce a higher OBP that should pay off with Bruce crossing the plate with greater frequency. Now that he's shown that he's learning which pitches not to swing at, I think it's only a matter of time until he makes better use of the balls he is making contact with. He's proving that he can make adjustements, and combined with a little luck and a little less lust for the long ball I think we will see his AVG rebound sharply at some point this season. I wouldn't expect him to flirt with .300 but I think an AVG in the neighborhood of .265 in the second half is very possible.
The only uncertainty in my mind is how quickly this will happen. If I owned him I would temper my expectations and exercise what Jay Bruce himself has learned... patience.
Right now would be a good time to trade for Bruce. Due to his nausea inducing AVG for the month of June and his average draft position of 98th overall, it is likely that his owner in your league will have an itchy trigger finger involving a deal that would make him someone else's problem. As long as you pay for his current numbers I don't think you'll be disappointed and considering the potential for improvement this could be a difference maker come October.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
The Mike Cameron Conspiracy
Mike Cameron, OF for the Brewers, recently served his one game suspension for an "ump bump". While arguing a called third strike on June 6th in Atlanta, he made inappropriate contact with the umpire which resulted in the MLB handing down a 2-game suspension. Cameron then decided to raise more ruckus by appealing his suspension. While the MLB did reduce his suspension to one game which he served this past Saturday against the Detroit Tigers maybe Cameron should have just taken the two days off earlier this month.
Since his tussle with the umpire in Atlanta his strike out rate has jumped ten percent, from 27% to 37%. While this is a small sample size, I don't think it's too outlandish to think that the subjective art of calling balls and strikes may have been intentionally skewed against Cameron during his borrowed time before his suspension. While Cameron's appeal was being reviewed he's surely had little room for outbursts and has had to silently take whatever calls the umpires have issued him and do his best to keep the result of his at-bats out of the hands of umpires.
Whether there has actually been a conspiracy against Cameron over the last few weeks, or if he's simply perceived a conspiracy against him is moot; they would yield the same result, a higher strike out rate. If the umps have given him less leniency at the plate he would strike out more frequently. If he believed that he wasn't going to get fair calls at the plate, he would chase poor pitches in an effort to nullify any unfairness concerning the strike zone, which would result in more strike outs.
Regardless the cause of his increased strike out rate, whether it be his paranoia or a conspiracy or both, I would expect his numbers to recover now that his suspension has been served and the whole "ump bump" scandal is behind him.
Here are the pure numbers on the season:
Perhaps it's a good time to buy-low on this beleaguered batter.
Since his tussle with the umpire in Atlanta his strike out rate has jumped ten percent, from 27% to 37%. While this is a small sample size, I don't think it's too outlandish to think that the subjective art of calling balls and strikes may have been intentionally skewed against Cameron during his borrowed time before his suspension. While Cameron's appeal was being reviewed he's surely had little room for outbursts and has had to silently take whatever calls the umpires have issued him and do his best to keep the result of his at-bats out of the hands of umpires.
Whether there has actually been a conspiracy against Cameron over the last few weeks, or if he's simply perceived a conspiracy against him is moot; they would yield the same result, a higher strike out rate. If the umps have given him less leniency at the plate he would strike out more frequently. If he believed that he wasn't going to get fair calls at the plate, he would chase poor pitches in an effort to nullify any unfairness concerning the strike zone, which would result in more strike outs.
Regardless the cause of his increased strike out rate, whether it be his paranoia or a conspiracy or both, I would expect his numbers to recover now that his suspension has been served and the whole "ump bump" scandal is behind him.
Here are the pure numbers on the season:
- Mike Cameron's career strike out rate: 1706 SO in 6119 AB = 27.9%
- From June 6th to June 19th, 16 of 43 at bats resulted in strike outs... 37.2%
- In the time leading up to the "ump bump" as well as his first game after suspension... 49 SO in 183 AB = 26.7%
Perhaps it's a good time to buy-low on this beleaguered batter.
You Can't Tell Me This Team Doesn't Look Good On Paper
Maybe I've been crunching numbers too long but I've begun wondering which famous writers would make the best Fantasy Baseball Players? Without fanfare, let me introduce the Write-Handers, a literary mock lineup...
Chuck Palahniuk C Fight Club - His batting is secondary to his ability to throw opposing batters off their games by reciting grueling passages from his novels. He's got potential to be one of the greats. Actual Player Equivalent: Matt Wieters
Ernest Hemingway 1B A Farewell to Arms - With a short, powerful stroke he's a master of the longball with a freakish slugging pct, but can string together bore inducing slumps midseason before finishing strong. Actual Player Equivalent: Carlos Pena
Miguel de Cervantes 2B Don Quixote - Considered a prototypical talent, he blazed the way for all that came after. Occassionally will foolishly chase after bad pitches in a way that can only be described as quixotic. Actual Player Equivalent: Rod Carew
Samuel Beckett SS Waiting for Godot - Turning double-plays as easily as he turns a phrase, this golden glove winner is also a switch hitting wonder that first gained attention in France. Fun FYI: Samuel Beckett was indeed an excellent Cricket player in college. Also, rumor has it that Beckett used to give his neighbor, Andre the Giant, rides to school and discuss cricket. Actual Player Equivalent: Jimmy Rollins
James Joyce 3B Ulysses - With a knack for making epic plays, he makes the ordinary appear to be extraordinary. While it's been debated how much the sauce has helped or hindered him, his results have always been at the very least noteworthy. Even though his romantic life has been hotly discussed in the past, he's still best known for his ability to use everything around him to make him better. Actual Player Equivalent: Alex Rodriguez
Stephen King RF The Shining - Known for making plays all over the field, versatility is a major strength on the field and in the batter's box. At first glance he seemed to be a one dimensional power hitter that has gone against the grain and become a 5-tool contributor after striking fear into opposing pitchers. Actual Player Equivalent: Torii Hunter
Jack Kerouac CF On the Road - A well travelled journeyman best known for his legendary legwork, he's played for nearly a third of the teams in the league. His best, award winning seasons came early but his numbers sharply dropped from spectacular to simply good as he zig-zagged the country playing in a different city nearly every year. Actual Player Equivalent: Kenny Lofton
Clifford Irving LF The Hoax - He's a gifted thief, but his BABIP shows his ability to get on base is a complete hoax. After a bidding war spearheaded by the Yankees, a short stint in the minors exposes him and is currently without a contract. Actual Player Equivalent: Emilio Bonifacio
J.D. Salinger SP Catcher in the Rye - Pitches four flawless complete games, but spends rest of the career on DL with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Actual Player Equivalent: Dontrelle Willis
William S. Burroughs SP Naked Lunch - Long and lanky, he's a pock-faced Big Unit but gets into trouble for going all William Tell after a bad inning. Gets suspended for using needles. Actual Player Equivalent: A combination of Roger Clemens, Vicente Padilla and Randy Johnson... and not necessarily all of their best qualities.
Kurt Vonnegut SP Cat's Cradle - With a wide variety of pitches in his arsenal, batters have come to expect the unexpected. His fast ball is fast, and his curveball is truly suprising. His efficiency is remarkable, making his mound appearances feel shorter than they are. Asked to be traded to the Toronto Blue Jays due to an affinity for the Blue Footed Booby of the Galapagos. Actual Player Equivalent: Roy Halladay
Dan Brown RP The DaVinci Code - Has a reputation for exhaustively studying opposing batters in order to create storybook endings for his team. His research has paid dividends thus far but he's a lightning rod in the press. After making wild claims at the heighth of his prowess, he's been written off by many as a complete nut. Actual Player Equivalent: John Rocker
Edgar Allen Poe RP The Raven - Making a career out of haunting the last inning, he's given more than a few batters nightmares after turning out the lights. He craves darkness so much he's known for making the bizaare yet time honored request to only play night games. Actual Player Equivalent: Tervor Hoffman
Chuck Palahniuk C Fight Club - His batting is secondary to his ability to throw opposing batters off their games by reciting grueling passages from his novels. He's got potential to be one of the greats. Actual Player Equivalent: Matt Wieters
Ernest Hemingway 1B A Farewell to Arms - With a short, powerful stroke he's a master of the longball with a freakish slugging pct, but can string together bore inducing slumps midseason before finishing strong. Actual Player Equivalent: Carlos Pena
Miguel de Cervantes 2B Don Quixote - Considered a prototypical talent, he blazed the way for all that came after. Occassionally will foolishly chase after bad pitches in a way that can only be described as quixotic. Actual Player Equivalent: Rod Carew
Samuel Beckett SS Waiting for Godot - Turning double-plays as easily as he turns a phrase, this golden glove winner is also a switch hitting wonder that first gained attention in France. Fun FYI: Samuel Beckett was indeed an excellent Cricket player in college. Also, rumor has it that Beckett used to give his neighbor, Andre the Giant, rides to school and discuss cricket. Actual Player Equivalent: Jimmy Rollins
James Joyce 3B Ulysses - With a knack for making epic plays, he makes the ordinary appear to be extraordinary. While it's been debated how much the sauce has helped or hindered him, his results have always been at the very least noteworthy. Even though his romantic life has been hotly discussed in the past, he's still best known for his ability to use everything around him to make him better. Actual Player Equivalent: Alex Rodriguez
Stephen King RF The Shining - Known for making plays all over the field, versatility is a major strength on the field and in the batter's box. At first glance he seemed to be a one dimensional power hitter that has gone against the grain and become a 5-tool contributor after striking fear into opposing pitchers. Actual Player Equivalent: Torii Hunter
Jack Kerouac CF On the Road - A well travelled journeyman best known for his legendary legwork, he's played for nearly a third of the teams in the league. His best, award winning seasons came early but his numbers sharply dropped from spectacular to simply good as he zig-zagged the country playing in a different city nearly every year. Actual Player Equivalent: Kenny Lofton
Clifford Irving LF The Hoax - He's a gifted thief, but his BABIP shows his ability to get on base is a complete hoax. After a bidding war spearheaded by the Yankees, a short stint in the minors exposes him and is currently without a contract. Actual Player Equivalent: Emilio Bonifacio
J.D. Salinger SP Catcher in the Rye - Pitches four flawless complete games, but spends rest of the career on DL with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Actual Player Equivalent: Dontrelle Willis
William S. Burroughs SP Naked Lunch - Long and lanky, he's a pock-faced Big Unit but gets into trouble for going all William Tell after a bad inning. Gets suspended for using needles. Actual Player Equivalent: A combination of Roger Clemens, Vicente Padilla and Randy Johnson... and not necessarily all of their best qualities.
Kurt Vonnegut SP Cat's Cradle - With a wide variety of pitches in his arsenal, batters have come to expect the unexpected. His fast ball is fast, and his curveball is truly suprising. His efficiency is remarkable, making his mound appearances feel shorter than they are. Asked to be traded to the Toronto Blue Jays due to an affinity for the Blue Footed Booby of the Galapagos. Actual Player Equivalent: Roy Halladay
Dan Brown RP The DaVinci Code - Has a reputation for exhaustively studying opposing batters in order to create storybook endings for his team. His research has paid dividends thus far but he's a lightning rod in the press. After making wild claims at the heighth of his prowess, he's been written off by many as a complete nut. Actual Player Equivalent: John Rocker
Edgar Allen Poe RP The Raven - Making a career out of haunting the last inning, he's given more than a few batters nightmares after turning out the lights. He craves darkness so much he's known for making the bizaare yet time honored request to only play night games. Actual Player Equivalent: Tervor Hoffman
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