Cincinnati Reds sophomore outfielder Jay Bruce has disappointed his owners with a poor batting average and a failure to deliver the stolen bases that many analysts had alluded to during the preseason hype-orgy that surrounded him. While unsatisfied expectations can account for most of the hair pulling, there are reasons to rejoice when it comes to owning Bruce.
He's provided very good power numbers (18 HR) and a respectable 38 R and 40 RBI. Yes, he's only provided 3 steals... but any steals you get from Bruce should be considered gravy. Yes, he has an abysmal .215 AVG but there are reasons to be optimistic about that number improving significantly over the course of the season.
His BABIP on fly balls is .048, nearly 90 points below the league average of .139. That is bad enough, but he also hits fly balls 46.1% of the time, over 10% higher than the league average. He has been accused of falling in love with the long ball, and the numbers clearly support this. Most often people will describe having a high or low BABIP as a statistic that can be attributed to blind luck, but this is not always the case. It's likely that if you and I know that Bruce likes to swing for the fences, so does opposing pitchers and fielders. After an April in which he batted .258 AVG and .530 SLG, the word was out on the kid and the league adjusted. In May his AVG and SLG dropped 50 points each and his struck out to walk ratio went from 2:1 to 3:1. In June we saw his AVG drop 30 points to a ghastly .187 and SLG drop another 100 points to .385.
These numbers and trends do not seem to have the makings of a comeback story but there is indeed a silver lining. The numbers on the balls Bruce hit during the month of June are not pretty, but the numbers on the balls he wasn't shows promise. After striking out three times for every walk in May he has evened his SO:BB to 15:14 in June and while his AVG and SLG dropped his OBP rose 20 points. It might appear to be a small victory in the face of a total meltdown but I do believe Bruce is going through the necessary growing pains that will make him a much better batter in the not-so-distant future.
In plain english, he's learning plate discipline and that is going to produce a higher OBP that should pay off with Bruce crossing the plate with greater frequency. Now that he's shown that he's learning which pitches not to swing at, I think it's only a matter of time until he makes better use of the balls he is making contact with. He's proving that he can make adjustements, and combined with a little luck and a little less lust for the long ball I think we will see his AVG rebound sharply at some point this season. I wouldn't expect him to flirt with .300 but I think an AVG in the neighborhood of .265 in the second half is very possible.
The only uncertainty in my mind is how quickly this will happen. If I owned him I would temper my expectations and exercise what Jay Bruce himself has learned... patience.
Right now would be a good time to trade for Bruce. Due to his nausea inducing AVG for the month of June and his average draft position of 98th overall, it is likely that his owner in your league will have an itchy trigger finger involving a deal that would make him someone else's problem. As long as you pay for his current numbers I don't think you'll be disappointed and considering the potential for improvement this could be a difference maker come October.
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